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AI EconomyUK and US

Jobs AI Is Replacing: Declining Occupations in the US and UK, With Figures to 2035

Data entry, typing, cashiering and office administration lead every decline list. See the WEF, BLS, NFER and DfE figures and how to time a transition.

Reviewed 9 October 2026 · 10 sources checked
In short
  • BLS projects word processors and typists down 34.4% and data entry keyers down 25.5% from 2025 to 2035.
  • Office and administrative support loses 752,100 US jobs (-4.0%), the largest loss of any group.
  • WEF lists postal clerks (-34%), bank tellers (-31%) and data entry clerks (-26%) as declining fastest to 2030.
  • AI exposure and job decline measure different things: accountants rank as exposed in the UK yet grow 5.0% in US projections.
  • WEF: 59 in 100 workers need training by 2030 and 11 are unlikely to receive it.

The roles shrinking fastest in the World Economic Forum (WEF), US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and UK projections share one trait: routine information processing. Data entry, typing, switchboard work, cashiering, bookkeeping and general office administration top every decline list. Generative AI sharpens that trend, though the BLS does not attribute all of these declines to AI. This guide gives the lists with figures and explains why timing a transition matters.

WEF: fastest-declining jobs worldwide, 2025 to 2030

Percentages are as reported by Euronews from the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025.

RoleProjected change
Postal service clerical workers-34%
Bank tellers and related clerical workers-31%
Data entry clerks-26%
Cashiers and ticket clerks-20%
Administrative assistants and executive secretaries-20%
Printing and related trades workers-20%
Accounting, bookkeeping and payroll clerks-18%
Material-recording and stock-keeping clerks-16%

BLS: fastest-declining US occupations, 2025 to 2035

The BLS fastest-declining table (employment in thousands, median wage May 2025) shows where percentage losses are steepest.

OccupationJobs 2025 (000)Change (000)Change %Median wage
Word processors and typists40.4-13.9-34.4%$49,280
Telephone operators3.5-1.0-27.6%$41,740
Switchboard operators35.4-9.2-26.0%$38,630
Data entry keyers131.8-33.6-25.5%$41,340
Telemarketers60.9-13.0-21.4%$35,450
Order clerks78.9-13.8-17.5%$46,170
Payroll and timekeeping clerks159.6-25.4-15.9%$58,260
File clerks76.2-12.0-15.8%$43,600
Sewing machine operators117.2-17.7-15.1%$36,670
Office machine operators25.8-3.8-14.9%$40,960

BLS: the largest US job losses by headcount

Large occupations lose the most jobs even at modest percentages. The BLS table of largest job declines lists:

OccupationChange (000)Change %Median wage
Cashiers-200.6-6.5%$32,880
Office clerks, general-156.2-6.0%$45,010
Customer service representatives-141.8-5.3%$44,770
Secretaries and administrative assistants-114.1-6.0%$47,540
Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks-85.6-5.6%$50,670
Shipping, receiving and inventory clerks-62.8-7.6%$45,260
First-line supervisors of retail sales workers-52.5-3.7%$48,520
Tellers-44.7-13.2%$43,030
Correctional officers and jailers-29.5-7.4%$58,940
Computer user support specialists-26.2-3.5%$61,860

By occupational group, office and administrative support is projected to fall 4.0%, or 752,100 jobs, the largest loss of any group in the 27 August 2026 release. Sales and related occupations fall 1.4% and production 0.4%. Total US employment still grows 3.5%.

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UK evidence

SourceFinding
NFER Skills Imperative 2035 (2022)Elementary administration and service occupations -0.52 million and secretarial and related occupations -0.20 million, 2020 to 2035; about 2 million jobs displaced by new technology
NFER press release (25 November 2025)Up to 3 million jobs in declining occupations could go by 2035; administrative, secretarial, customer service and machine operation named as at risk
ONS (2019)About 1.5 million English jobs (7.4% of those analysed in 2017) at high risk of automation; waiters, shelf fillers and elementary sales highest
DfE, Impact of AI on UK jobs (2023)Most AI-exposed: management consultants and business analysts, financial managers, accountants, psychologists, purchasing managers. Least exposed: sports players, roofers, elementary construction, plasterers, steel erectors

The UK sources differ in age. The ONS analysis uses 2017 data, the DfE report appeared in 2023 and the NFER release in November 2025. None separates AI from other automation, so use them to judge direction and compare the newest figures first.

Exposure and decline are different measures

The lists disagree in useful ways. The DfE ranks accountants among the most AI-exposed UK occupations. The BLS projects US accountants and auditors to grow 5.0% (79,400 jobs), while bookkeeping clerks shrink 5.6% (85,600 jobs). Exposure shows how many tasks AI can assist with. Decline shows what employers plan to do about it. Where AI augments a skilled worker, headcount can hold. Where it replaces a routine task bundle, headcount falls.

The BLS release shows the same split inside one economy. Office and administrative support falls 4.0% while computer and mathematical occupations grow 7.3% and data scientists grow 34.6%. The BLS adds that its exposure tiers do not forecast job loss and do not separate automation from augmentation.

Research estimates vary widely with method. Frey and Osborne (Oxford Martin School, 2013) put 47% of US employment at risk of computerisation. A study by Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (arXiv, 2023) found about 80% of US workers could have at least 10% of their tasks affected by language models and about 19% at least half. The ONS found 7.4% of English jobs at high risk. Treat each as a different question.

What the declining roles have in common

The OECD AI exposure measure (May 2026) finds the occupations closest to current AI capability involve routine information processing, administrative work and codifiable tasks. The furthest are those requiring contextual judgement, interpersonal understanding, complex decision-making and responsibility. The decline tables above match that pattern: typists, keyers, clerks and operators handle structured inputs with rules.

Three practical readings follow. First, a civilian title in records, personnel administration or customer processing will appear on these lists, so check the title before you apply. Second, security and public-service roles carry their own pressures: the BLS projects correctional officers down 7.4%. Third, the pay in declining roles often sits at or below the all-occupations US median of $50,980, which makes them tempting fallback jobs. Treat them as a bridge with an end date.

Why timing matters

The WEF estimates that 59 in every 100 workers need training by 2030, and that 11 of them are unlikely to receive it (skills outlook). Employers split on the response (workforce strategies):

  • 85% plan to upskill existing staff and 77% plan reskilling to work alongside AI
  • 47% plan to move staff out of AI-disrupted roles
  • 41% expect to reduce headcount as AI replicates tasks

You cannot tell in advance which response your employer will choose. A short audit before you sign a lease or enrol on a course costs little. The same audit two years into a shrinking role costs far more.

A five-minute audit of your target role

  1. Search the role in the BLS tables above and in the WEF lists. Note the percentage and the headcount change.
  2. Open the BLS AI exposure file for your occupation and note its tier. Treat the tier as a prompt for questions.
  3. Ask the employer which tasks in the job AI tools already handle, and how the team will change.
  4. Look for the adjacent role that supervises, checks or sells the work. Customer service teams, for example, still need quality, escalation and team leader roles.
  5. Pair your plan with a growth list. Our guide to the WEF 2030 jobs forecast lists the roles expanding fastest.
Decline is gradual

A 4.0% fall in a job group over ten years is a slow squeeze. Many of the roles above still pay $33,000 to $59,000 a year today. The aim is to choose the next move while income continues.

Next steps

What to do this week

  1. Find your target role in the BLS and WEF decline tables.
  2. Check its AI exposure tier in the BLS exposure file.
  3. Ask a hiring manager which tasks in the role AI already handles.
  4. Identify the supervisory or specialist role next to it and price the qualification.
  5. Set a date to review your plan while your current income continues.

Questions people ask

Which jobs will AI replace first?
Routine information-processing jobs lead the lists: data entry, typing, switchboard and telephone work, cashiering, bookkeeping and general office clerks. BLS projects word processors and typists down 34.4% and data entry keyers down 25.5% from 2025 to 2035.
Which jobs are least exposed to AI in the UK?
The DfE lists sports players, roofers, elementary construction occupations, plasterers, steel erectors, vehicle valeters, hospital porters, cleaners, floorers and metal plate workers as the ten least exposed. Physical, on-site work features heavily.
Is AI exposure the same as job loss?
No. The BLS says its exposure tiers do not forecast job loss and do not separate automation from augmentation. Office support shrinks 4.0% while data scientists grow 34.6%. See the BLS note.
How many jobs will be lost to AI in the UK?
NFER estimates up to 3 million jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035, concentrated in administrative, secretarial, customer service and machine operation roles. Employment overall is expected to grow. See the NFER release.
When should a veteran move out of a declining role?
Move while income continues. The WEF finds 41% of employers expect to reduce headcount where AI automates tasks and 77% plan reskilling, and workers cannot predict which applies. Start a skills plan before the role visibly shrinks.
Sources
  1. BLS, "Employment Projections: 2025-2035" news release (27 August 2026). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.htm
  2. BLS, "Fastest declining occupations", table 1.5 (2025 to 2035). https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/fastest-declining-occupations.htm
  3. BLS, "Occupations with the largest job declines", table 1.6 (2025 to 2035). https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupations-largest-job-declines.htm
  4. BLS, "AI exposure categories" (2026). https://www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm
  5. World Economic Forum, "Future of Jobs Report 2025: Jobs Outlook" (chapter 2). https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/in-full/2-jobs-outlook/
  6. World Economic Forum, "Future of Jobs Report 2025: Workforce Strategies" (chapter 4). https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/in-full/4-workforce-strategies/
  7. Euronews, "Which are the fastest growing and declining jobs" (1 February 2025). https://euronews.com/business/2025/02/01/jobs-market-at-a-crossroads-which-are-the-fastest-growing-and-declining-jobs
  8. Department for Education, "The impact of AI on UK jobs and training" (28 November 2023). https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-impact-of-ai-on-uk-jobs-and-training
  9. ONS, "Which occupations are at highest risk of being automated?" (25 March 2019). https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/whichoccupationsareathighestriskofbeingautomated/2019-03-25
  10. NFER, "Up to three million UK jobs at risk over the next decade" (25 November 2025). https://www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releases/up-to-three-million-uk-jobs-at-risk-over-the-next-decade-says-report/
Written by
Dr Carlos M. CallirgosFounder and Principal Investigator, Total Veteran

US Navy veteran of 16 years and Chief Petty Officer, with a PhD from Leeds Beckett University on how people rebuild identity after leaving the military.

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